Digital Twins and the Strategic Resilience of Critical Infrastructure in the Euro-Mediterranean Region

Anticipation, simulation, and preparedness in complex and interdependent systems

Author: Sebastiano Martignano, research strategy advisor -CRF Italy

In an age of interconnected risks and cascading failures, the resilience of critical infrastructure has become a defining challenge for modern societies. From energy blackouts and cyber-attacks to climate-induced floods and supply chain disruptions, the continuity of essential services increasingly depends not only on the robustness of individual systems, but on the ability to anticipate, coordinate, and adapt across interdependent sectors and territorial boundaries.

In this context, Digital Twin systems offer a strategic layer for preparedness, transforming how we model, monitor, and govern critical infrastructures—particularly in complex geopolitical spaces like the Euro-Mediterranean region.

What are Critical Infrastructures—and why do they matter?

Critical infrastructures (CIs) are the backbone of modern life. They include energy supply chains, water distribution, health systems, communication networks, transportation corridors, and digital platforms. A failure in any one of these can have severe consequences, especially when it propagates through others—what systems thinkers call cascading effects.

Recognizing this, the European Union has significantly reinforced its legal framework for the protection and resilience of CIs. The Directive (EU) 2022/2557 on the resilience of critical entities (replacing the older 2008 directive) introduces a preventive, risk-based and systemic approach. It mandates:

• A national strategy on CI resilience;
• Risk assessments across sectors and cross-border networks;
• Minimum resilience measures for operators;
• Crisis communication and coordinated incident response mechanisms;

But legal frameworks alone are not sufficient. What is missing in most Member States—and even more in the EU–MENA interface—is a live infrastructure for anticipation, coordination, and simulation. This is where Digital Twins come in.

Digital Twins as Dynamic Risk Environments

Digital Twins are not simply virtual replicas of physical assets. At their most advanced, they are interactive, adaptive systems that fuse real-time data, predictive modeling, and simulation logic, creating a living environment for operational decision-making. In the context of CIs, this means:

• Continuous monitoring of systems across variables, thresholds, and domains;
• Scenario simulation: from routine variations to high-impact low-probability events;
• Impact forecasting, including second- and third-order effects (e.g., how a substation failure impacts urban mobility, hospital services, or cold chains);
• Distributed mitigation planning, with dynamic resource allocation and stakeholder coordination;
• Learning environments for preparedness training, including real-world test cases and cross-sectoral drills;

Unlike static risk assessments, Digital Twins are never finished. They evolve with the system they represent, incorporating new data, re-calibrating assumptions, and enabling institutions to learn over time.

Preparedness, not just response

A key innovation of Digital Twins lies in shifting the focus from response to preparedness.

Emergency management has traditionally relied on:

• predefined protocols;
• static contingency plans;
• and reactive decision-making;

But the nature of modern risk—non-linear, distributed, and cross-sectoral—demands systems that can anticipate, adapt, and simulate before the shock occurs. Preparedness is not just about having a plan; it’s about knowing how systems behave under stress, how actors will interact, and where the tipping points lie.

Digital Twins provide this capacity by enabling:

• virtual stress tests of infrastructure networks under various hazard scenarios;
• cooperative planning between sectors (e.g., energy and mobility, health and transport);
• real-time dashboards for local authorities and emergency responders;
• advanced early warning systems based on pattern recognition and scenario modeling;
• the training of operators through live interaction with evolving models and simulation loops;

By embedding Digital Twins into Living Labs, the project environment becomes a safe but realistic test space, where preparedness can be trained—not just administratively, but operationally.

Territorial integration and Euro-Mediterranean coordination

Nowhere is this approach more needed than in the Euro-Mediterranean area. The region is:

• exposed: to droughts, sea level rise, heatwaves, seismic risk;
• interconnected: through energy corridors, port infrastructure, logistic chains;
• institutionally asymmetric: with uneven technical capacity and fragmented regulatory frameworks;

Here, a federated Digital Twin infrastructure allows each node—port, water facility, energy grid control center—to simulate and manage its own risks while also contributing to a shared regional preparedness environment. This means:

• sharing scenario templates and system behaviors across borders;
• practicing decentralized coordination in simulated crisis situations;
• aligning civil protection agencies, operators, and municipal authorities on joint action plans;
• supporting cross-border investments in redundancy and mutual aid;

Such an approach aligns with the EU Civil Protection Mechanism, the Resilience Goals 2030, and the Interreg NEXT MED strategic priorities.

From resilience as policy to resilience as infrastructure

What this shift reveals is that resilience is no longer only a policy goal—it must become an operational infrastructure. Laws and standards set the direction, but Digital Twins build the capacity to execute, adapt, and evolve.

They allow infrastructure to:

• sense disruptions early;
• simulate systemic responses;
• coordinate decentralized actors;
• and adapt governance to real-time complexity;

In this sense, resilience becomes a continuous function of the system, not a one-time plan. It becomes intelligent, situated, and collaborative.

A Preparedness Infrastructure for a Connected Region

As risks grow more complex and interconnected, so must our tools for managing them. Digital Twins are not a silver bullet—but they are an enabling layer for a more adaptive, anticipatory, and cooperative approach to critical infrastructure.

In the Euro-Mediterranean region, where technical asymmetries meet physical interdependence, they can serve as:

• bridges between systems;
• platforms for learning;
• and anchors for joint preparedness;

This is not simply about knowing more. It is about governing complexity through shared simulation and collective foresight.

References

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